A photo shows flooding caused by a flash flood at the Guadalupe River in Kerrville, Texas, on July 5th, 2025. | Photo: Getty Images
By definition, flash floods are notoriously difficult to warn people about well in advance. They form rapidly, giving forecasters hours of lead time at best to figure out where they might hit with specificity. We’ve seen this with devastating effect in Texas, where flash floods over Independence Day weekend killed over 100 people – many of them children and families who were in bed when officials issued emergency warnings.
Issuing warnings requires a whole lot of weather and water data. Foreseeing how much rain is likely to fall, and then figuring out the flow of that water on land, are both complicated tasks. Climate change adds another r …
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Why it’s so hard to warn people about flash floods